Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: Brief description of articles contained in the newsletter.

Description: This presentation was made at the 1975 Spring Cincinnati Joint Meeting of the Conference of Actuaries in Public Practice and Society of Actuaries. It discussed the following: how to choose the best pension assumptions and methods, how to arrive at interest assumptions, and the advantages of cost methods that reflect assumptions about new entrants and other changes in the group. 1975 Record Vol. 1, No. 3

Description: This paper examines the valuation of assets and poses the following questions: A. What bases, other than cost or market, are in use for valuing pension trust assets and acceptable under the Internal Revenue Code and Rulings? and B. How can a retirement plan having assets valued on a book or cost basis utilize existing unrealized appreciation for purposes of improving benefits or reducing current funding costs without changing to a market value basis? From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1961, Vol. 13, Pt. 2.

Description: A new approach to computing annual pension costs, based on an open-group projection of the participant population for a number of years, was described in detail in a paper published in the 1975 Transactions, entitled 'The Forecast Valuation Method for Pension Plans.' That paper described the operation of such a cost method at the initial valuation date. This paper discusses several alternative approaches to projection valuation methods and also describes how costs should be computed at valuation dates after the first one. In addition, the author illustrates projected contributions and asset buildups under both traditional [closed-group] cost methods and projected [open-group] cost methods, for a number of years under a variety of assumptions as to the growth rate of the participant group. Projection valuation methods have not been described heretofore in sufficient detail to make it possible for actuaries to use them on a recurring basis or for the Internal Revenue Service to make a determination as to the acceptability of such approaches for computing tax-deductible pension plan contributions. It is the hope of the author that this paper will fill both of those gaps. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1977, Vol. 29.

Description: The author delves into other important parts that should be in the scope of model validation besides the code.

Description: This panel discussion session reported on the status and content of the Actuarial Standards Board standard dealing with the selection of assumptions. The discussion covers what the effects would be on practitioners.

Description: In this paper, a general model for a pension plan involving growth with respect to the population, salaries, and retirement benefits is used to study contribution patterns that may arise under different actuarial cost methods. Detailed results are presented for the case where the growth of population and the growth of salaries are described by exponential functions. Economic implications are presented and discussed. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This article summarizes the approach taken by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries to develop mortality tables and mortality improvement scales for use in Canadian pension plans based on Canadian population data. It also summarizes the additional factors pension actuaries have to consider in using the new tables and scales.